So the results are in and the PQ under Pauline Marois has won. ( Currently PQ-56 LIB-48 CAV-19 QS-2
Sure they have replaced Jean Charest and his government but only by the slimmest of margins ( Charest himself lost his seat)
Marois becomes the first female Premier of Quebec.
However the numbers of tonight are no resounding endorsement of the PQ, nor are they a mandate for a referendum.
That idea is pretty much dead.
With the CAQ winning 18 seats and pledging not to discuss referendums or federalism for 10 years coupled with the Liberal Party snapping at her heels, Marois’s wings have been clipped.
Tonight’s result is simply a statement by the people of Quebec that it’s time for a change.
With the two opposition parties in a position to topple the new government, Marois will have to stay in line.
I think the CAQ are the big winners and actually hold the balance of power with their 18-20 seats depending upon final numbers.
They have the most to gain from any Marois shenanigans if the folks in Quebec choose to dial-up real change the next time. They will have to be at the top of their game to look like a government in waiting.
By my count ( I have history watching over me) the PQ government should last about 2.5 years giving the Liberal Party a short time to find a new leader. Given Charest’s loss of his seat and the hunt for his replacement, I would expect no BS from them either. ( This is a tough assignment for the Liberals given that there seems to be no heir apparent waiting in the wings.
Unless..is this where the savior Trudeau will step up to the plate?
Rumors are that he will run federally but will this give him cause for thought and a graceful way to bow out of federal politics?
What do you think of the results out of Quebec tonight?
The Coaltion Avenir Quebec leader, Francois Legault has to prove to the electorate that his party is a viable alternative to Charest’s Liberals.
He also has to send a message to those people considering parking their votes with knucklehead Marois and the PQ that there is a reasonable more sane place to vote that will include what Quebec wants and no threat of a referendum.
For the Quebec Solidaire and spokesman Francoise David they have to prove to separatists that they actually exist and that they are abetter alternative than the PQ. I believe they are a non-entity in this election.
Marois has to show the people that her party is not made up of Xenophobic racist separatists. For her this is no small order given that’s what her platform reeks of.
Who has the most to lose?
Charest and Marois.
The Coalition Avenir stands to gain the most if Charest and Marois flounder.
They win if Charest looks like he is trying to cover something up and they win if Marois looks like the racist old hag she is.
A good performance by Legault and the election is his to lose.
In her usual I will do what ever it takes to create the winning conditions for a referendum pose, PQ Leader Pauline Marios has ceased wearing the red square she had on during the height of the student protests.
She says she took it off for St.Jean Baptiste day, I say with a potential election on the horizon, her handlers told her that the voters would think her an idiot for continuing to support the union backed student demonstrations and riots.
Can Quebec and Canada afford to get into this divisive issue a this point in out history?
Canada’s economy is fragile enough without the voters in Quebec handing Marois and her group of treasonous MNAs a reason to have a costly referendum which will no doubt cause markets to rattle and tank worse than they already are.
To show the seriousness of the situation, Prime Minister Harper went to visit former PM Brian Mulroney and current Premier of Quebec Jean Charest just to get their point of view on how to handle this potential crisis.
I wonder if he asked Charest how he got us into this mess?
Tonight PM Harper will follow-up those meetings with a speech targeted at revitalizing the party in the province and yes lay the foundation for a Quebec appeal.
With last nights split in the Quebec by-elections, I wonder what message the electorate is sending the government and perhaps by extension the country?
With the PQ win in a usually safe federal seat, were voters using the by-election as a safe time to send the Charest government a message or is full scale change happening which will lead to another full on unity debate as pompous windbag Pauline Marios seems to think?
With the world economy once again on edge , can Quebec and Canada afford to have that discussion now?
Can Quebec afford to have that discussion no matter the shape of our economy given it relies so much on Federal government assistance ? ( You thought I was going to say because they are a bunch of freeloaders living off the country and whining whenever seat redistribution or senate reform comes up for discussion?)
I would suspect that common sense will eventually prevail and even if the government turns over Quebec will vote to stay in Canada.
If however, we have a referendum and the polls look like we are headed for separation we can always make a robocall or two to Jacque Parizeau”s friends.