UDATED:Quebec Election 2014, A Liberal Blowout and a Marois Resignation! #qc2014 #bcpoli #canpoli #goodbyepauline

j’ai un mal de tĂȘte!

The final numbers aren’t in ( Lib 70,PQ 30,CAQ 22,QS 3) but make no mistake about it, this is a Liberal blowout of herculean proportions!

The Quebec voters have handed Philippe Couillard and his Liberal Party a majority and by doing so have put the boots to Pauline Marios and her separatist crew for some time to come. ( More on that later)

In his victory/concession speech lucky new PQ MNA Karl Pierre Peladeau sounded more like a man who was giving Marois the Royal shove off the stage as he paid homage to the victory of Philippe Couillard.

For what it’s worth local politicians never congratulate leaders of winning parties. They usually leave that to their leader, unless of course that MNA already thinks he is the leader.

His speech sounded like the groundwork for that campaign and lets face it, who in the PQ would take him on right now.

Of course victory for him won’t be easy especially if you are a PQ member who blames Peladeau for the loss and lets face it his entrance into this contest and his sovereignty proclamation turned this election on its ear and handed it to Couillard and the Liberals.

Since Peladeau gave his speech he has already been telling reporters not to be blamed on him.

Personally I don’t think Peladeau will stick around and he will quit soon. A by-election will be called and the CAQ will pick up another seat.

The debates played a role and showcased the leadership of Francois Legault. His superb performance propelled the CAQ to upwards of 20 seats a new high for the party. They no doubt peeled off disenchanted PQ votes because of that and likely because a vote for them as well as Quebec Solidaire was ” safe’ in this election.

What about Marois? She will likely lose her seat by the hair of her chinny chin chin and either give herself the hook on a speech expected shortly or be given the boot by the party aka Peladeau.

She called an election a mere 18 months into her mandate ( David Peterson could have taught you a thing or two Pauline) and she lead what could be classed as one of the worst campaigns in history.

In her speech she resigned? Why wouldn’t she, she left the party in shambles.

What of Separation?

The separatists have a number of problems to deal with.

1) The current old generation of separatists probably just saw the last of their elections.

2) There are 3 parties in the house , 2 of which grew in size and who also troll for separatist votes.

3) Once the aforementioned old guard retires they will have rely on the young vote to help their cause and we all know the young folks don’t vote.

To be sure, Philippe Couillard has been given a big mandate not only to grow the economy but also to keep his foot on the throat of the separatists.

Will he do it?

Will Francois Legault be able to grow the CAQ as a viable alternative to the PQ?

Will the PQ go the way of the dodo bird? Who will be their new leader.

Will Peladeau quit soon and go back to private life?

What do you think?

Quebec Election: Monday’s Fun #canpoli #qcpoli #bcpoli

The Perils Of Pauline….

What a difference a month makes!

It wasn’t long ago the pollsters had the PQ up 22% and ready to form a majority government and wreak havoc on the rest of Canada.

Then Pierre Karl Peledeau turned the election upside down with his entry as a PQ candidate and his one fisted ( some would say ham handed ) declaration that he was a candidate for one reason and one reason only: Separation.

The election was turned upside down!

With 2 days to go it appears that the Liberals are going to win.

The latest Ekos poll shows them somewhere around 40% and the PQ support is still crumbling while the CAQ support is on the rise.

Anything can still happen ans we have seen from election polls turning on a dime recently.

Lots of questions still to be answered: Who will win? Majority or Minority? What will it mean?

Lost in the discussion it seems is the question “What will the voter turn out be?”

A large turnout will surely mean a PQ wipe-out and perhaps a surprise with a large number of CAQ seats.

Today, Premier Marois is threatening the Quebec voter with the resumption of the corruption hearings and how the Liberals will cover that up if they win.

Marois would do well to remember that ” she who lives in glass houses should throw stones” given the PQ has a lot to lose with the resumption of those hearings as well. I think this strategy will also backfire and drive even more of their traditional support into the waiting arms of the CAQ.

The PQ could finish as low as third!

I think the big questions that will be answered quickly after the election are : How long will it take Pauline to retire and will we have to wait until the polls close before the knives come out to get her. ( Maybe Pierre Karl Peladeau will shove her off the stage )
Should be a fun night!

What do you think will happen?

Quebec Election: It’s a Minority for the PQ

That’s Premier Justin s’il vous plait!

So the results are in and the PQ under Pauline Marois has won. ( Currently PQ-56 LIB-48 CAV-19 QS-2

Sure they have replaced Jean Charest and his government but only by the slimmest of margins ( Charest himself lost his seat)

Marois becomes the first female Premier of Quebec.

However the numbers of tonight are no resounding endorsement of the PQ, nor are they a mandate for a referendum.

That idea is pretty much dead.

With the CAQ winning 18 seats and pledging not to discuss referendums or federalism for 10 years coupled with the Liberal Party snapping at her heels, Marois’s wings have been clipped.

Tonight’s result is simply a statement by the people of Quebec that it’s time for a change.

With the two opposition parties in a position to topple the new government, Marois will have to stay in line.

I think the CAQ are the big winners and actually hold the balance of power with their 18-20 seats depending upon final numbers.

They have the most to gain from any Marois shenanigans if the folks in Quebec choose to dial-up real change the next time. They will have to be at the top of their game to look like a government in waiting.

By my count ( I have history watching over me) the PQ government should last about 2.5 years giving the Liberal Party a short time to find a new leader. Given Charest’s loss of his seat and the hunt for his replacement, I would expect no BS from them either. ( This is a tough assignment for the Liberals given that there seems to be no heir apparent waiting in the wings.

Unless..is this where the savior Trudeau will step up to the plate?

Rumors are that he will run federally but will this give him cause for thought and a graceful way to bow out of federal politics?

What do you think of the results out of Quebec tonight?

Coalition Avenir Quebec kicks off Potential Election by Turfing Candidate!

Sovereignists Racists? Where did you ever get an idea like that?

Coalition Avenir Quebec Candidate Kamal Lufti was turfed by his party today for tweeting that sovereignists are racists.

A great start from the new party who wants to make an impact on an election some say will be called August 1st.

Wonder how that compares to some of the things today’s student demonstrators more than likely were saying about Jean Charest and his Liberals?

The unfortunate thing was that Lufti was not necessarily wrong, given the closing remarks of head Separatist Klansman Jacques Parizeau after the last referendum.

After-all they did lose that vote because of money and the ethnic vote didn’t they?