I have been listening to discussions a lot lately about what issue or issues the BC 2013 election will be fought over.
One pundit says the economy ( I guess that’s fashionable since James Carville coined the phrase ‘it’s the Economy Stupid!”),another says the election will be fought over BC Rail,another says it will be all about getting rid of the BC Liberals.
Some people even say that this election will revolve around the environment or post secondary education.
What about fracking?
One thing they all seem to agree on is that the government should be framing the ballot box issue.
In truth and in fact they are all wrong.
These are not issues they are files within a mandate.
Elections are about Leadership!
You don’t vote on the economy you vote on who best to lead you through a rough patch or who to lead and manage a good economy.
BC Rail? You are not voting on that, you are voting on who best to lead the legislature to make sure that never happens again?
The environment? Post secondary education? Those are not issues; the issue is who best to lead the province in the right direction and manage those two files.
The pipeline? Just another file. You vote on who best to handle the file.
The Government frames the issue right?
They should be. Gordon Campbell ( no matter what you think of him) was very good at framing the leadership issue. He won three elections. He also left when he realised he could no longer frame this as his issue.
Today the government is no longer setting the pace on the main issue for the upcoming general election.
If you believe the polls the BCNDP are framing the issue of leadership for the government.
Adrian Dix is waging a very calculated and to this point successful campaign showing himself to be the best leader.
He is including everybody in the discussion and is not afraid to release bits of his platform.
A case in point: His recent speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade. he told a largely pro business audience that if successful in the election he would raise corporate taxes back to levels of 2008.
He is showing extreme confidence and speaks with out emotion.
He lays claim to wanting to do politics differently and backs it up with statements like” If the Federal government changes their mind and does not close the Vancouver Coast Guard I will be the first one to issue a press release applauding the government and that decision.
Contrast that with the premier who, when asked on a radio show ( Bill Good to give credit where it’s due),to comment on the polls showing the women’s vote is going to the NDP said after a few callers phoned in, it’s early,people are not paying attention and I plan to run on my record.
What the premier should have said was’ those polls are on me, I am the leader and I have seven months to work hard and prove that I am the right person for the job.
So as of right now the she is right, she will be running on her record.It is a record of not taking simple leadership of a simple question.
Likewise the optics from the recent BC Conservative AGM and dissident fiasco were not good for the party and when contrasted against the backdrop of Adrian Dix’s handling of George’s Heyman’s position on fracking ( George is entitled to his opinion we welcome discussion here) once again gave the voting public something to compare them to.
There are seven months to go until the election.
To be successful the BCNDP needs to continue what they are doing, the other parties have to catch up.
Tomorrow night is the final presidential debate. It is strictly about foreign policy.
It is a chance for both candidates to spell out their vision on that topic.
Obama in particular has been hammered for not spelling out a vision for the country,let alone foreign policy.
This is important because national security, which is part of the foreign policy debate, is front and center on voters minds with all the goings on in the middle east.
Romney/Ryan have little experience in this area while Obama’s record is mixed.
Obama, if you recall, took out Osama Bin laden but has fumbled of late dealing with such issues as Iran,Syria ans the recent terrorist attack in Libya.
This past weekend Obama was hammered by the Romney people for the ‘leak’ regarding the apparent negotiations with Iran ( Iran eventually said the talks were a croc because they were not prepared to negotiate with anybody in the US on the eve of an election).
Hard working BCNDP Candidate Raj Hundal has stepped aside and shut down his bid to become the MLA for Surrey-Tynehead.
Hundal as you might recall won the nomination back in July of 2011.
Up until earlier this week Hundal was one of the more active BCNDP hopefuls on Twitter and Facebook.
Interestingly enough all of Hundal’s social media accounts were shut down soon after the announcement.
Her has yet to make a personal comment.
The press release made a reference to the old stand by ‘personal reasons”.
The timing is interesting in that the BCNDP is having a nomination meeting this weekend between two so-called heavy weight candidates Geoff Meggs and George Heyman in the vacant seat of Vancouver-Fairview.
It is rumored that both men are cabinet material.
It has been said that the BCNDP will find a seat for the candidate who loses on Sunday.
Could it be that they found a seat and asked Hundal to step aside?
The Overall poll result is 46% of the people believe Obama won versus 39% for Romney.
Gotta leave the Obama people feeling pretty good eh!
Not so fast. Obama was awful in the first debate and anything a little better would propel his numbers upward. He gets credit there.
In November when Americans cast their vote in the only poll that matters they will be looking for two things as most people do in elections.
They are leadership and the economy. ( Think Harper Harper Harper if you were watching the least Canadian election) . These two factors will stand out even more in the US next month given where the world economy and the US debt-load is.
Romney won by 4% on who would make the best leader ( I hear people screaming that the margin of error makes that a tie, I say who says the margin of error always has to go the way of the loser).
On the poll within a poll that really matter Romney blew Obama away. He won by 18% on which candidate will be able to manage the economy.
If I was running the Republican ad machine I would get the commercials rolling. ” When it comes to your food,job,house taxes and lively-hood Mitt Romney trumps Barack Obama hands down” or something to that effect.
When people go to the polls they are not voting for the most likeable guy, they did that the last time and look where it got them.
They are going to vote for the candidate that will protect their wallet.
I went to junior high in Winnipeg made up of grade seven,eight and nines.
I remember only too well being in grade 8 ( I was the smallest kid in the class) living a 1 minute walk from school.We lived next door to the school, I literally had to go out the back gate and pretty much the back stairs were there.
Didn’t matter, this guy got me most every day at least once. Never hit me just blocked my way, pushed me , and threatened to clobber me. Tormented me, scared me.
Bothered me so much I used to pretend to be sick so I wouldn’t have to go to school.
In reality and looking back there was no pretending at all. I was sick and scared.
This guy ( there was two, but one predominately and I remember the name like it was yesterday but I won’t mention it).
Still bothers me today and it makes me wonder how those events shaped my life and that was before the internet.
I had a nervous stomach and as a 12 year old kid became the Tagamet king of Winnipeg.
I often wonder if taking that drug is the root of all my digestive and other problems now .( Actually bullying is probably the root)
So lets hope Amanda’s life and death were not in vain, lets hope she brought this issue to the forefront where it should be.
Maybe then, the bullies will no longer be the funny people in cartoons but rather the monsters that they deserve to be.
1) Romney has to keep up the attack on the Obama record and show the electorate why he is the best leader to put their hopes and dreams with.
2) Obama has to awaken from his coma. If you recall he sat back in round one and let Romney bring the fight to him.He has to state very clearly what his vision for the country is for the next four years.
3) As this is a town hall type debate both candidates will take questions from the voters. This is where Obama usually excels and Romney does not. Obama has a history of being better able to interact with the voters where as Romney tends to be a little gaffe prone.
This should be an interesting night!
My feeling as I have said before is that Obama’s heart is not in the job and if it were up to him he would quit. If Romney brings it to him professionally and aggressively look for Obama to sit back and give up.