In an interview with the CBC today NDP MP says that he is not prepared to announce whether he will run for the leadership of the NDP so quickly because it’s a 15-20 year commitment and that it the thought process leading up to his decision would take more than 24 hours.
Mr Cullen’s name has been bandied about for years regarding leadership aspirations and succession in the party. I can’t imagine he is just starting to think about it now.
Even more shocking is that he thinks it’s a 15-20 year commitment.
To Wit:
Enter the race now and run for leadership( fight off the leap manifesto) for the next 2 years
Win and fight for the next year in the run up to the 2019 election ( So far 2+1 =3)
It seems everybody has an opinion as to whether Brad Wall should run and also why Conservatives want to draft him to run.
I am a Conservative who has lived and networked in most places in Canada ( including Regina) and I will tell you unequivocally why people like me want him to run.
It has nothing to do with keeping the party united ( although he would do that with ease). I have spoken to many Conservatives and none of them have raised this as an issue no matter who wins.
We want him to run because Brad Wall would make a great Prime Minister!
He has proven time and time again he is a great leader who knows how to win elections because he listens to people.
Adrian Dix and I Clowning Around before Coast Guard Speeches.
So as the summer of 2013 races by and fall encroaches on our good times,what will become of Adrian Dix?
Will he stay,will he go or will he be pushed out?
Who Knows? For one thing the BCNDP has a habit of cannibalizing their own, just ask Carol James.
Already there are sounds he will be pushed out.
I spent a bit of time with Adrian when the BC Conservatives were working on the Coast Guard file back last spring.
I left with the impression he was too nice a guy for the role that was before him.
The election itself bore that out.
They should have attacked the BC Liberals rotten record of government and scandals.
They didn’t and it cost them an election they should have won.
My take: If they want to get anywhere four years hence they need to move swiftly to change their leadership without a public head-chopping.
Dix should do the right thing and go of his own free will.. This will keep the party united and allow them to change leaders quickly.
Another head chopping ala James will be nasty and I think mortally wound the party.
Why the short time frame for a change?
1) Four years goes by fast and they need to rebuild more than just the political leadership. Their executive must go as well.
2) The Greens will not sit idly by while the NDP drags their feet and will pick up support on the left.
3) The federal riding changes will be announced in a few short months and if you believe as I do that the BCNDP are merely the West-coast wing of the Federal NDP than you have to know that the next two years will preoccupy them with federal nomination battles. This will eat into their provincial rebuilding in a big way.
4) The provincial party could lose potential leadership candidates to those aforementioned nomination battles.
Failure to act now means they will limp into the 2017 BC Provincial election with nothing new to offer.
They would open their flank to the Greens and the BC Conservatives, with the possibility that not only would they lose the 2017 election but might not even form the opposition.
This would be a disaster they would probably not recover from.
I have been listening to discussions a lot lately about what issue or issues the BC 2013 election will be fought over.
One pundit says the economy ( I guess that’s fashionable since James Carville coined the phrase ‘it’s the Economy Stupid!”),another says the election will be fought over BC Rail,another says it will be all about getting rid of the BC Liberals.
Some people even say that this election will revolve around the environment or post secondary education.
What about fracking?
One thing they all seem to agree on is that the government should be framing the ballot box issue.
In truth and in fact they are all wrong.
These are not issues they are files within a mandate.
Elections are about Leadership!
You don’t vote on the economy you vote on who best to lead you through a rough patch or who to lead and manage a good economy.
BC Rail? You are not voting on that, you are voting on who best to lead the legislature to make sure that never happens again?
The environment? Post secondary education? Those are not issues; the issue is who best to lead the province in the right direction and manage those two files.
The pipeline? Just another file. You vote on who best to handle the file.
The Government frames the issue right?
They should be. Gordon Campbell ( no matter what you think of him) was very good at framing the leadership issue. He won three elections. He also left when he realised he could no longer frame this as his issue.
Today the government is no longer setting the pace on the main issue for the upcoming general election.
If you believe the polls the BCNDP are framing the issue of leadership for the government.
Adrian Dix is waging a very calculated and to this point successful campaign showing himself to be the best leader.
He is including everybody in the discussion and is not afraid to release bits of his platform.
A case in point: His recent speech at the Vancouver Board of Trade. he told a largely pro business audience that if successful in the election he would raise corporate taxes back to levels of 2008.
He is showing extreme confidence and speaks with out emotion.
He lays claim to wanting to do politics differently and backs it up with statements like” If the Federal government changes their mind and does not close the Vancouver Coast Guard I will be the first one to issue a press release applauding the government and that decision.
Contrast that with the premier who, when asked on a radio show ( Bill Good to give credit where it’s due),to comment on the polls showing the women’s vote is going to the NDP said after a few callers phoned in, it’s early,people are not paying attention and I plan to run on my record.
What the premier should have said was’ those polls are on me, I am the leader and I have seven months to work hard and prove that I am the right person for the job.
So as of right now the she is right, she will be running on her record.It is a record of not taking simple leadership of a simple question.
Likewise the optics from the recent BC Conservative AGM and dissident fiasco were not good for the party and when contrasted against the backdrop of Adrian Dix’s handling of George’s Heyman’s position on fracking ( George is entitled to his opinion we welcome discussion here) once again gave the voting public something to compare them to.
There are seven months to go until the election.
To be successful the BCNDP needs to continue what they are doing, the other parties have to catch up.
Thomas Mulcair has won the leadership of the Federal NDP and is the new leader of the opposition , Now what?
He will more than likely move the party to the center and most likely very quickly.
What will this mean to Canadian politics?
First and foremost it will almost certainly force the Liberal party of Canada to advance their own leadership convention.
Why?
Because Mulcair and the NDP will devour the Liberals if they get control of the center and Marijuana Bob wouldn’t like that.
Also the interim leader of the Liberal Party, under it’s constitution, cannot negotiate a merger with the NDP. They need a permanent leader, it’s as simple as that.
What else?
It will probably force a lot of the extreme leftists that are currently have a home in the NDP to go somewhere else. ( Hello Elizabeth May and the Green Party you belong together )
Anything else?
Yes the right side of the Liberal Party will likely bolt to the Conservatives rather than join the NDP.
That it?
No the Bloc had hopes and aspirations going into today. Thomas Mulcair probably killed them off.
Anything good come of all this?
Yes likely the Liberal Party as you know it is done, so is the Bloc?
Any last thoughts?
Yes given all the mayhem and delays in the voting today , Rebecca Blaikie handle herself well. She is a good President of the NDP and has a lot to be proud of.
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